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It is a bear season in the stockmarket and gold miners are prospering. The possible US recession is the most probable main driver. Gold is seen as the best hedge against both the US recession and the US dollar currency weakness. Gold has returned a neat 20 percent return compared to the S&P which has declined 12 percent. Market commentators relate the current action in the market to what happened during 1979-80, when gold prices trebled within a matter of few weeks. A Fed Reserve rate cut would surely propel gold to new high price levels.
Gold and platinum prices have surged following mine closures in South Africa, a leading producer of the metals. South Africa is second to China in Global gold production and is the top producer for platinum. AngloGold, Harmony and Gold Fields suspended all their mining operations following a national electricity emergency. Mining operations suspensions follow fears of power interruptions would trap miners underground. Mine equipment problems, accidents and maintenance have contributed to a decline in production.
Trading Psychology
Business News

Treasurer Wayne Swan delivered one of the biggest budgets ever for the nation today for the Australian Budget 2008. Economists and business groups hailed the budget and expressed their confidence in the budget. The Australian financial market also expressed their confidence and expected that the proposed budget shall help to reduce interest rates and benefit the financial markets as well. It is wise to understand that the budget surplus is heavily contributed by the boom in resource prices which is being fuelled by demand in China.
Merger of two big financial institutions of Australia – Westpac Banking Corporation and St George is likely to be announced today. Westpac revealed yesterday that it is in talks with St George for a possible merger between the two.
Investors and share traders at the Australian stock exchange are cautious before the introduction of new budget to be introduced on Tuesday. Traders also fear yet another surge in crude oil prices and problems in the financial markets. Thus, they would be more focussed towards the domestic events in coming few days.
Australian Markets News
BHP shares have hit record high at all the major stock exchanges including ASX and NY Stock exchange. BHP Billiton witnessed a jump of nearly 4 percent after rumours hit the market about undisclosed Chinese interests to hold stakes in the company. The intraday trading of shares witnessed a surge of $50 today amidst strong speculations. BHP Billiton shares opened 4 percent higher at $49.95 before reclining back $1.56 or 3.25 percent at $49.54 by 10 am.
National Bank of Australia is planning to offer a counter bids on St. George. The Chief Executive of NAB commented that his bank is looking at options to run numbers on St George bank takeover. "We look at all opportunities and in due course we will look at this transaction, but just now we're literally on the sidelines watching with interest what is happening," said Mr. Stewart at the National Press Club lunch in Canberra.
The global media conglomerate reported a healthy third quarter profits. Most of the profits have been attributed to the growth in advertising revenue at Fox News and Fox Channel that pertain to its broadcasting and newspaper assets.
Forex News
Petrol prices are tipped to return to $1.30 a litre as the Australian dollar loses value as a result of the rising US interest rates. The Aussie has LOST about 3 cents in a little over a fortnight. Watch out for all imported goods to rise too... on the flip side exporters are celebrating, particularly those in the mining sector. Oil is currently around $66 a barrel, it was around $58 a barrel just a few weeks ago.
At 7am (AEDT), the Aussie dollar was trading at US75.02¢ slightly below Friday's close of US75.19¢. And since Friday, it hit a low of US74.90¢ and a high of US75.45¢. Aussie dollar continues to trade within a tight range.
The US dollar fell in value as a result of a much weaker Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion rate of 1.1% annual rate as investors expected more. And so the US dollar was sold off. The the next figures to be received by the market was better than expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) component.
The Australian dollar opened firmer on today following a fall in the US currency on weaker data and renewed Euro strength.
At 7am (AEDT), the local unit was trading at US75.49¢, above Friday's close of US75.13¢. At noon it is hovering around the US75.70¢ mark.
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Date added 17-05-2008 - Counter Bids on Westpac and St. George Deal
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