ROC

Roc Oil Company (ROC) has a maintained Buy/High Risk recommendation and target price of $2.74/share from market analyst Macquarie Research Equities.

Roc Oil Company Ltd (ROC): No EPS Dilution Expected…AZA is a highly profitable company

Australian Resources Weekly provided by Australian market analyst UBS.

What are consensus estimates telling us?

Consensus estimates versus spot prices:

Bloomberg data suggests spot is lower than consensus estimates for lead (-25%), nickel (-23%) and zinc (-19%) and higher than consensus estimates for copper (5%) and oil (28%). The implication is that there could be downside risk to zinc, lead and nickel, if prices do not rise from current levels and hence a negative impact on the stocks exposed to these commodities.

Roc Oil Company (ROC) has two more exploration wells scheduled to test pre-salt targets from Australian stockmarket analyst Macquarie Research Equities.

Roc Oil Company Ltd (ROC): Coco-1 flows minor oil from Angola pre salt reservoirs

UBS has released some of their analysts' thoughts on the Australian energy sector, especially in the area of Oil Prices. In light of the recent strength in the oil price, the analysts have reviewed two oil pricing scenarios - Futures Curve and WTI spot to determine their impact on forecast EPS, valuations and our share price targets for our Australian E&P company coverage. Scenario 1: WTI Futures curve: average WTI oil price US$75/bbl: Applying the futures curve increases 2008 EPS forecast most for Tap (+84%), Santos (+47%) and Woodside (+41%).

Roc Oil Company (ROC) have a changed share trading recommendation of Hold and a reduced share price target of $3.70 per share from $3.80 from analyst Citigroup Investment Research (CIR). The downgrade follows the three month delays for prospective Angloan exploration to commence. The company reported a disappointing Financial Year (FY) profit result with a loss of $59.6M against CIR's forecast of a profit of $12M and consensus of $10M. Angola drilling to start mid May where the plan is to have two rigs working onshore Cabinda (net 60%). The first well could spud mid May and take six weeks to reach its target (estimated at end June). The plan envisages 3 to 6 wells drilled back to back. CIR estimate a 50% chance that a 25MMbbl field can be delivered. Already offshore Cabinda some 4.5Billion barrels of oil has been found. Big capital expenditure (capex) commitment to accelerate production where the cost to ROC of optimising the Chinese Zhao Dong fields is estimated at US$108.4M (A$142M). The resultant production profile is uncertain and likely to be variable. However, CIR suggests production from the C & D fields could rise from 23,000Bopd towards 27,000Bopd by 2008 and further into 2009 as C4 comes on line. The Chinese Beibu Gulf Field looks good with the Wei 6-12 South JV will commence Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) work on the Beibu Gulf oil fields (net 19.6% after CNOOC backing in) at end 1Q07. A Formal Investment Decision (FID) could be made by end 2007 for a mid 2009 start-up of the 30 to 40MMbbl reserve.

Roc Oil Company (ROC) have a reduced share price target of $3.80 (from $3.87) while their stock recommendation has been upgraded to Buy/High risk from Hold/High Risk from stocks analyst Citigroup Investment Research (CIR). A JV partner suggests that the Wei 6-12 South oil discovery could be soon declared commercial. If so, a Formal Investment decision could be made in 2H07, subject to full JV agreement. Roc Oil as the Operator is optimistic but taking a more conservative stand. Recent work by the JV seems to have suggested a reserve in the order of 40MMbblsof recoverable oil. A resource of this size could support production of 30,000Bopd (which is good). CNOCC Timetable Could Differ from Existing JV — this is the main risk to an early field development. The Chinese companies have a history of being slow and a portfolio of propositions that they will need to consider and compare to Wei 6-12 South. Angola Drilling 2Q07 — the first onshore well is still expected in 2Q07 (Roc 60%).